Analysis: As gold prices surge, cash-for-gold frenzy fades

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/11/us-gold-bugs-idUSTRE77A3CT20110811

By Jan Harvey

LONDON | Thu Aug 11, 2011 10:22am EDT

LONDON (Reuters) - Gold, and only gold, will be our salvation when the value of companies, banks, countries and even money itself melts away. Gold, not shifting currencies, is the foundation of wealth and security. Gold is back, for good.

This is the song of the "gold bugs" - the fervent fans of the precious metal who have clung to its investment value for three generations and now glow in the reflected luster of a record price approaching $2,000 for just one ounce.

Monday will mark the 40th anniversary of the United States' abandonment of the gold standard. But gold bugs kept the faith -- even when prices stayed under $500 for nearly 25 years after their 1981 peak.

Their passion derided, dismissed as hopelessly out dated doomsayers, their love for the metal seemed irrational.

The gold bug label itself goes back to master of the supernatural Edgar Allen Poe and his story of that name, a tale of golden beetle whose bite sends the hero to a chest of gold and jewels.

It reappeared as one of the first campaign buttons -- a brass bug sported by supporters of William McKinley in the bitter U.S. presidential election of 1896.

McKinley, the first presidential candidate to barnstorm across the nation, backed the gold standard against his Democratic opponent's proposal that it should be joined by silver in a fixed ratio. Loser William Bryan slipped into history but bimetallism lived on for a little in the think tanks of the day.

Fast forward and the financial crisis of 2008 has made gold the darling of investors from hedge funds to taxi drivers, and sparked a near-doubling of prices.

"Gold has been rising against all national currencies, and that's significant," James Turk, founder of bullion dealer Goldmoney, said.

"When there are problems with a national currency... people begin to worry about the value of their money, whether they're going to lose purchasing power because of inflation or other problems. As a consequence, they look for safe havens."

He was speaking as a true gold bug -- not in the dark days after Lehman Brothers' demise in 2008, nor in the depths of last year's euro zone debt crisis, nor after Standard & Poor's recent downgrade of the United States' top-notch credit rating.

Turk's view came in a BusinessWeek interview he gave in 2005, well in advance of the current financial crisis.

"My long-standing forecast, made in a Barron's interview in October 2003, is that $8,000 per ounce will be reached sometime between 2013-2015," he told Reuters this week.

"I've stayed with that forecast over the years and see no reason to change it."

The world's current financial woes are only going to get worse if current policies continue, he believes, meaning the rally in gold prices is unlikely to stop here.

"Politicians and central bankers are making decisions that debase national currencies, and the resulting bad monetary policies they are following are causing the gold price to rise," he said.

Gold's latest push to record highs has gone hand-in-hand with a plunge in Wall Street stocks to their lowest in nearly a year, while the dollar is languishing near multi-year lows.

Long-term gold bull David Beahm, vice president of marketing and economic research at New Orleans bullion dealer Blanchard and Co., says worries over the stability of the stock markets will be a key driver of higher gold prices.

"The best investment right now is gold," he said. "By diversifying one's portfolio with a negatively-correlated gold, investors can protect themselves from deep plunges in the equity market."

"There is no news in the market today or over the coming few months that is likely to stop the current gold bull market, as the fundamentals are firmly in place for gold to continue its rise," he says.

Traditional investment commentators have dismissed gold -- which, with no "intrinsic" value of its own, is only really as valuable as a buyer thinks it is -- as a classic bubble.

But those who have predicted its crash since it rose above $700 an ounce in 2006, on a simple "what goes up, must come down" analysis, have consistently been proved short-sighted.

Gold prices traded in a relatively narrow range from $250-420 an ounce for the whole of the 1990s. They have since more than quadrupled from that high, peaking at a record just below $1,800 an ounce earlier this week.

Their rise accelerated sharply from 2005 onwards, breaking through $1,000 an ounce in 2008 as the weaker dollar fueled demand for alternative stores of value.

Now gold bulls are predicting that prices, now around $1,750 an ounce, but still short of an inflation-adjusted high of nearly $2,500 in 1980, could climb even higher.

"I believe the price of gold will rise irregularly over the next several years, possibly reaching $1,850 an ounce by the end of this year, breaking above $2,000 in 2012, and possibly $3,000, $4,000, and even $5,000 in years to come," says Jeffrey Nichols, managing director of American Precious Metals Advisors and senior economic advisor to Rosland Capital.

"At the heart of this forecast is my observation (or belief) that the United States and, to a lesser but still significant extent, Europe have been living beyond our means for decades."

Back in 1896, losing presidential candidate Bryan's Cross of Gold speech turned the watching crowd into "a wild, raging irresistible mob," the New York Times reported.

Gold bugs, often accused of sensationalism, are finding their passion is becoming mainstream. "Raging" is probably no longer a suitable description of them. "Irresistible" is increasingly nearer the mark.

(Reporting by Jan Harvey, editing by William Hardy and Richard Mably)

FMG开始使用人民币结算与中国贸易

2011年07月14日 18:44　 本文来源于财新网 订阅《新世纪》 | 注册财新网

澳大利亚第三大铁矿石生产商FMG总裁透露使用人民币结算与中国交易

　　【财新网】（见习记者 余思伟）澳大利亚第三大铁矿石生产商FMG宣布使用人民币进行中澳贸易结算。

　　澳大利亚新快网报道称，FMG总裁安德鲁·弗鲁斯特（Andrew Forrest）称，这会成为一种趋势，因为更有利与中国做生意。

　　FMG大部分铁矿石卖给中国客户，湖南华菱钢铁持有其17.4%的股份，是第二大股东。弗鲁斯特表示，公司大部分的铁矿石是卖给中国的，到目前为止只使用美元结算进出口贸易。

　　FMG首席运营官Nev Power表示，已经以人民币完成一份与中国的交易，不过还未涉及铁矿石销售。

　　上个月，力拓也表示开始研究用人民币结算铁矿石交易的问题。■

http://business.caing.com/2011-07-14/100279577.html

金價瘋漲 金粒有錢未必買到

【經濟日報專訊2011-08-10】股市連日急挫，具避險功能的黃金全球熱搶，金價節節攀升，市面金粒缺貨，出現有錢也未必買得到的異象，而且手快有着數。

昨晨金舖的飾金牌價3度更改，有人選了金飾「轉個頭」付款已要多付數百元；店員指一對龍鳳鈪的入場費已起碼逾萬元，反問「為何這麼遲才買？」

實金不含手工費用，投資保值能力較飾金高。從事黃金回收買賣的忠記負責人鍾琅音指，昨日開市2小時，金價升了再升，反映黃金渴市，全球掀起搶金熱潮。

買多賣少 實金一度缺貨

鍾表示，現時買金的人多，鮮有人賣金，除了本地飾金工場和金舖增加入貨，也有個別投資者會買金收藏保值。現時每塊重1,000克的實金，價值42萬元。他相信，正因為這股買金熱潮，導致金舖售賣的金粒也出現缺貨情況。

多家金舖營業員昨表示，近日很多客人買金粒，已缺貨多天，不設預訂；其中一間有售金粒及金條的金舖職員表示，實金前日一度缺貨，有很多客人想買都買不到，但昨日已返貨，可接受預訂，但限定要即日取貨，不設購買上限。

記者昨以顧客身份到多間金舖查詢，營業員均向記者表示，昨晨飾金牌價曾3度更改，由每両1.7萬多元升至1.8萬多元。營業員笑稱，昨晨有顧客選購 金鏈連吊墜時，希望考慮片刻，不料稍後折返時，牌價已經上升，令該批金飾售價較之前貴數百元；客人害怕金價再升，隨即付款購買。

高處未算高 內地客照買

來自深圳的李先生，因家中有小孩出生，昨與太太來港購買金飾，預算花費3萬多元，選購玉兔金吊墜送給家人。金價連日不斷攀升，沒有影響李先生買金飾的意慾，他指︰「（金價）都已經漲了這麼多，擔心還會再漲！」

某金舖營業員表示，以昨午牌價計算，1萬元已不足以購買一對龍鳳鈪，入場費動輒1.2萬至1.3萬元；又稱金價續有上升空間，更反問記者︰「為何這麼遲才買？」事實上，昨仍有熟客豪擲10多萬元選購龍鳳鈪、金鏈及珠鏈等。

至於現在還入貨，金價會否已太高？鍾琅音認為，港人的心理是「寧買當頭起」，但他相信金價仍有上升空間，呼籲持金者毋須急售。不過，若未有貨者，鍾表示未必值得入貨，鍾指︰「都已升這麼多，再升也不是賺很多。」

The Third Phase In This Gold Bull Market

August 4, 2011, at 7:15 pm
by Jim Sinclair

Dear Extended Family,

I am in London this evening in my room posting as much serious material as possible to help you understand the new nature of gold; a nature fraught with unprecedented volatility. I will deliver my presentation tomorrow. Right now we have to talk.

Gold from $248 to $524.90 was an arithmetic uptrend based on a re-birthing of gold’s currency roll.

When gold broke out above $524.90 I asked you to please cease trading as gold had moved from phase 1 into a runaway price phase 2. It is this phase which has given you prices in excess of $1650.

$1764 has the same significance as $524.90 because it represents phase 3, the point when a runaway price market for gold would gain exponential properties.

Because $1764 is such significant a number you can expect one of the more serious price battles before the price departs to Alf Fields’ and Armstrong’s higher potentials.

To sum up the situation you haven’t seen anything yet.

As strange as it sounds right now, soon you will begin to see the bearish cabal on mining shares looking for cover where gold will be sold for correct precious metals shares.

Keep the faith. $1650 has been the minimum upside since $248, not the most likely top.

Respectfully,
Jim

Copied from : http://www.jsmineset.com/

Jim Sinclair – Gold Milestone at $1,764 Paves Way to $12,000

July 15, 2011, at 7:20 am
by Eric King

With gold hitting new all-time highs yesterday in dollars, euros and pounds, today King World News interviewed legendary trader Jim Sinclair and Dan Norcini to get their take on where things stand in the gold market. When Sinclair was asked about the action in gold he stated, “Gold at $1,764 is as important as gold at $524.90, and above $524.90 the gold market went into a runaway. It’s the exact same setup at $1,764, but having said that $1,764 should bring in some significant supply.

However, a move above $1,764 would be the equivalent of $524.90 in the sense that you would go from the runaway that was born at $524.90, into a hyperbolic market. The key to all of this is $1,764 and you will go above that level, but what that does is lock in four figures on the price of gold. A move above $1,764 brings into focus prices as high as $12,000, so we are are approaching the most critical milestone in the entire gold bull market…

Source: http://www.jsmineset.com/2011/07/15/jim-sinclair-gold-milestone-at-1764-paves-way-to-12000/

網路成癮 腦部結構萎縮

網路成癮　腦部結構萎縮 【2011/7/18 20:05】

http://iservice.libertytimes.com.tw/liveNews/news.php?no=519724&type=%E5%8D%B3%E6%99%82%E6%96%B0%E8%81%9E

〔本報訊〕美國和中國一項研究指出，若過度上網恐怕會導致腦部發生萎縮現象，腦部的灰色神經組織會因此萎縮，進而影響認知能力、決策力等等，且會隨著時間經過而日漸惡化。

　媒體報導，研究發現，過度沉迷於網路會對青少年腦部發育造成不良影響，核磁共振掃描結果也顯示，隨著網路成癮的時間愈長，腦部中的灰色神經組織萎縮的愈 多，甚至腦內負責傳遞信息的白質也會出現改變，研究人員表示，這些腦部結構改變會令青少年的認知功能出現異常，也會減低青少年的克制力。

　研究也顯示，腦部發生變化後，大腦皮層中負責處理情緒、語言、視覺、聽覺等功能的灰色神經會逐漸萎縮，長久下來，會影響青少年的集中力、記憶力、決策力甚至是訂定目標的能力等。

Swiss Parliament to discuss gold franc

Right-wing party seeks way back to gold standard

By Agnese Smith, July 8, 2011, 4:12 a.m. EDT

(http://www.marketwatch.com/Story/story/print?guid=E7C9F392-A8BA-11E0-AAD1-002128049AD6)

ZURICH (MarketWatch) — The Swiss Parliament is expected later this year to discuss the creation of a gold franc — a parallel currency to the official Swiss franc, with the fringe initiative likely triggering a broader debate about the role of the precious metal in the Alpine nation.

The initiative is part of “Healthy Currency,” a campaign sponsored by politicians from the right-wing Swiss People’s Party (SVP) — the country’s biggest — that is seeking to capitalize on popular fears about global financial turmoil and inflation to reverse the government’s current policy on gold.

“I can imagine that this will spark some sort of debate about gold and there may be some pressure to accept the parallel currency,” said Dr. Gebhard Kirchgaessner, an economics professor at St. Gallen University. “But it won’t have any real effect on the economy. It seems incredible to imagine that there are people out there willing to buy millions of these things.”

Switzerland, which in 2000 became one of the last countries to decouple its currency from gold, is not the only place to contemplate a change in the precious metal’s role amid controversy over government involvement in the economy. In March, Utah became the first state in the U.S. to legalize gold and silver coins as currency, while similar legislation was considered in Montana, Missouri, Colorado, Idaho and Indiana.

“I want Swiss people to have the freedom to choose a completely different currency,” said Thomas Jacob, the man behind the gold franc concept. ”Today’s monetary system is all backed by debt — all backed by nothing — and I want people to realize this.”

A good part of the enthusiasm for gold, which provokes strong emotion among many who invest in it, has to do with its price: the yellow metal has more than quadrupled during the last decade and now stands at more than $1,500 per ounce.

In the U.S., legislation to allow a gold currency is largely symbolic — a protest against what many consider irresponsible spending by central governments to recharge economies. But according to Jacob, the gold franc has a more practical goal: giving small investors the opportunity to safeguard their investments against global uncertainty.

Modest investors face several hurdles to investing in the precious metal, said the 50 year-old Jacob, a former pilot and currently a sales coach at Zurich Financial Services Group. Collecting coins, bullion and gold certificates typically requires professional advice and even the smallest coin costs around 100 francs. One of the new gold francs, on the other hand, with a gold content of 0.1 grams, could be purchased for just 5 francs (at current prices).

While there is evidence that investing in gold is increasingly popular in Switzerland and other countries, the idea of establishing a gold franc is not foremost on the minds most ordinary Swiss, some of whom still find the subject of gold uncomfortable given the country’s association with precious metals looted in World War II.

“I got rid of my coins a while ago,” said Esther Heusser, a social worker in Jona, Switzerland. “I just didn’t want to think about where they came from.”

The real problem

Very few have even heard of the initiative. The rising Swiss franc, which has jumped 16 percent in two years against the euro and the dollar thanks to its safe haven status, is a much wider concern.

This “is the real problem and it is clear that neither the [Swiss National Bank] nor the government have anything really meaningful against it,” St. Gallen’s Kirchgaessner said. “We might have a real crisis in a couple of years.”

Indeed, the strong franc has clipped corporate earnings of many exporters and has lead to some painful restructuring. Because of the ongoing global financial crisis, investors here and abroad are seeking a safe haven from economic uncertainty and inflation, which Switzerland’s low debt and firm economic footing provides. High gold reserves have also helped.

Jacob doesn’t think the adoption of the gold franc would increase the value of the official currency. “In fact, it would take pressure off,” he speculates.

Like the Swiss franc, gold has jumped for many of the same reasons, even though the Swiss National Bank and other central banks decided to dump the metal after two decades of underperformance against other financial instruments.

Strong demand from China has also helped push gold prices to records. Gold enthusiasts — so-called gold bugs — many of whom see stock markets as no better than gambling casinos and central banks as money printing machines — are rejoicing.

“Buying gold has been the best method for shorting the government,” wrote Shayne McGuire late last year. McGuire, who has predicted that gold could soar to $10,000 an ounce, manages the $500 million GBO Gold Fund for Teacher Retirement System of Texas.

“I strongly believe that present financial conditions are about to transform the investment strategies of the world’s largest investment funds in a way that will cause gold to surge substantially higher,” McGuire wrote in an essay on the metal.

Large reserves

Switzerland still holds a large amount of the precious metal. The alpine country of 7.7 million residents holds 1,040 tons worth about $46 billion, almost as much as China, according to World Gold Council figures. It ranks seventh in its league table, with the US at the top.

In terms of gold reserves per person, it stands at just over $6,000, number one by nearly twice the amount of the next largest hoarder, Lebanon (over $3,000) and nearly six times as much as the US ($1,000), according to The Economist newspaper.

But this is not enough according to the “Healthy Currency” movement.

The SVP, which also wants to limit the autonomy of the Swiss National Bank after it posted big losses trying to tamp down the franc, plans to start collecting signatures for a ballot initiative in mid August, according to Jacob. The party is demanding that the central bank stop any further bank sales, repatriate Swiss gold reserves held abroad, and not allow the proportion of its gold to fall below 20% of its total assets. The campaign is also calling for the country’s withdrawal from the IMF.

Jacob, who claims to have no affiliation with the SVP other than the currency initiative, admits that the success of his gold franc campaign is linked to the amount of publicity the Healthy Currency initiative manages to muster at the end of the summer. “It would definitely put the parallel currency on the agenda,” he said.

And it will be no easy feat. The passage of the legislation will require an amendment to the Swiss constitution and the country is not particularly well known for a reckless pace of change. If rejected, a popular vote — where ordinary Swiss people have their say — is planned, probably in mid 2012, according to Jacob.

If approved, licensed financial institutions can then issue the coins, using their official logo on one side with the other, an easily recognizable Swiss gold franc emblem, Jacob said. The initiative foresees strict regulation by the government to ensure gold content and authenticity.

Even if popularized, the gold coins are unlikely to be in use for commercial reasons as the volatility of gold prices make this unpractical.

限制原物料出口 WTO判中國違規

http://www.libertytimes.com.tw/2011/new/jul/6/today-e1.htm

環境保護 理由被駁回

〔編 譯劉千郁／綜合報導〕世界貿易組織（ＷＴＯ）預定於週二判定中國限制鋁土、鎂、螢石等九種工業用原物料出口違反ＷＴＯ規定，同時駁回中國以環境保護做為限 制出口的理由，此舉將為美國與歐盟對中國的稀土出口限額提出告訴鋪路；近來中國控制稀土開採與出口，讓極度仰賴該關鍵原料的歐美國家高科技產業大為緊張。

法 律專家指出，原物料議題「是政治問題多過於貿易問題」，稀土包括十七種稀有元素，廣泛運用於環保能源、通訊、軍事科技等重要產業，二○○九年美國、歐盟、 墨西哥曾就原物料出口提告，如今ＷＴＯ判定中國違規，將使西方國家反對中國稀土出口限制更站得住腳，如果中國不取消出口限制，這些國家可對中國商品提高關 稅；日前歐盟貿易執委德古特（Karel De Gucht）表示，原物料一案將大幅加強歐盟在稀土案的有利地位。

繼續設限 面臨高關稅

中國於二○○一年加入ＷＴＯ時，承諾取消出口限制，不過金融危機的發生，增加各國保留關鍵原料的壓力，北京政府也逐步恢復原物料出口限制，這讓西方製造商大感吃不消，中國是鎘、黃金、鐵礦石、石灰、鉛等工業原料的最大出口國。

今 年美國鋼鐵業遊說團體致函美國貿易代表，指中國降低礬土的出口配額，二○一○年為九十三萬噸，二○一一年只剩八十三萬噸；另有數據顯示，中國出口的磷由二 ○○五年的十萬噸減少為二○一○年的四萬噸。面對各國的申訴，中國援引ＷＴＯ第二十條，該條款允許成員國以環境保護等理由限制出口，不過ＷＴＯ已經駁回這種說法 (個人意見：條款形同無物？）。

日前日本在太平洋發現九百億噸的稀土蘊藏，可能終結中國在市場上的獨大地位，在此之前，掌握全球稀土蘊藏量三十％的中國，就佔去全 球供給的九十七％，去年中國減少稀土出口，造成國際價格大漲，稀土生產商Lynas Corp.週二指出，中國蘊藏量最大的三種稀土鑭、鈽、釹，本月價格較上個月下跌，不過仍在高點。

印古廟挖出1755億珍寶

http://www.singpao.com/NewsArticle.aspx?NewsID=181244&Lang=tc

　　【本報綜合報道】印度政府官員周一將在南部喀拉拉邦的印度教古代神廟「帕德馬拉瓦米神廟」，打開密室當中的兩座金庫。這寺廟先前已經挖出了大批金幣、寶石和各種珍寶，估計價值高達225億美元（約1,755億港元）。

派7人小組執行任務

　　喀拉拉省警察局長表示，他已經指派特種警察部隊看守這所古廟，並且要動用高科技安全系統來保護這批寶藏。

　　《印度時報》周一引述歷史學家、印度歷史研究理事會前會長納拉亞南報道，珍貴寶石和珍珠的古董價值無法斷定。印度最高法院審理一宗訴請廟方管理 透明化的案件，下令清點廟產，並指派一個七人小組執行任務。他們從6月27日開始行動，廟內六個密室（編號A至F）中，編號A、B兩個自1872年起便不 曾開啟。

　　七人小組日前進入密室A後，發現的近1,000公斤金幣中，包括屬於英國東印度公司時期和拿破崙時代的金幣。另外還有約一噸重大米形狀金飾、滿 滿一麻袋據稱來自緬甸和斯里蘭卡的鑽石、金繩一條、數千條項鏈、三呎半高的維什奴（Vishnu）神像、一呎高一公斤重人形雕像數尊等。不過七人小組成員 拒絕證實寶藏價值，強調只負責廟產清點工作。

太平洋海底藏大量稀土

http://www.singpao.com/NewsArticle.aspx?NewsID=181245&Lang=tc

　　英國《自然．地學》雜誌周日刊登報告說，日本研究人員對太平洋多個地點的海底稀土含量調查顯示，太平洋海底稀泥蘊藏豐富稀土資源。不過，有專家 指出，目前開發海底稀土礦，還面臨成本過高和影響環境等問題。稀土是鑭、釹等元素的總稱，它們是一些電子產品和尖端武器中必不可少的原料。據介紹，隨着全 球高新產業的發展，稀土資源供應呈日益緊張趨勢。

UK unveils first ATM for gold at Westfield Shopping Centre

Investors can now buy the precious metal with the same convenience as withdrawing cash from an ATM.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/gold/8609976/UK-unveils-first-ATM-for-gold-at-Westfield-Shopping-Centre.html

By Richard Evans

10:00PM BST 30 Jun 2011

The Gold to Go machine, which sells gold at constantly updated prices, is unveiled at the Westfield shopping centre in London on Friday.

The German company behind the machines, Ex Oriente Lux, is capitalising on gold's traditional status as a safe haven investment in times of economic turmoil.

Westfield's gold ATM will sell bars and coins in various sizes, including a special 2.5g bar with the London skyline engraved on its reverse.

Ex Oriente Lux said its products were sold in "top quality" boxes and were "a great gift idea". The 1g gold bar, costing about £41, was "about as cheap as a bouquet of flowers but sure not to wither".

It added: "Gold to Go provides private investors with easy, convenient access to physical gold at fair, real-time prices. The ATMs are always online and update their prices every 10 minutes."

Draw a simple 5-pointed star using Matlab

Just now found this nice short piece of code for drawing a simple 5-pointed star:

>> theta = 0:4/5*pi:4*pi;
>> figure;
>> plot(cos(theta),sin(theta),'m-')
>> axis equal; axis tight

Source: http://www.mathworks.com/matlabcentral/newsreader/view_thread/130807

首位女掌門法財長當選IMF總裁

• 2011-06-30 旺報 【記者梁世煌／綜合報導】

http://news.chinatimes.com/mainland/17180502/172011063000208.html

國際貨幣基金（IMF）新任總裁人選昨天凌晨終於塵埃落定，法國財政部長拉加德（Christine Lagarde）在中國、美國、俄羅斯等主要成員國支持下，確定成為下一任IMF總裁，她將是首位執掌IMF的女性，也是該組織第一位非經濟學家出身的掌門人，拉加德預計7月5日走馬上任，任期5年。

　根據IMF聲明，現年55歲的拉加德是在未經正式投票表決的情形下，以成員國協商並獲得一致通過方式贏得此一任命。現任墨西哥央行行長卡 斯滕斯則在此次爭取IMF總裁中確定敗北，因此，拉加德的任命案在獲得IMF的24個成員國背書後，意味著70年來IMF由歐洲人主導的「傳統」並未改 變。

　首要任務 解歐債危機

　拉加德隨後發表聲明表示，她將繼續推動IMF在世界經濟和金融危機中扮演的角色，努力促進世界經濟強勁持續穩定增長，目標便是「為IMF的全體成員國服務」。

　法國總統薩科齊則在第一時間對拉加德當選表示祝賀，並稱這是「法國的勝利」。

　法新社則報導，拉加德上任後，第一個面臨的難題就是如何緩和希臘國內反對財政緊縮計畫引發的示威活動，造成對歐元區整體穩定的威脅。

　《華爾街日報》報導，拉加德接掌IMF後，將捲入不斷加深的歐債危機，其首要任務之一就是在歐元區和IMF同意向希臘提供1100億歐元救助一年後，幫助制定第二個希臘救助計畫。

　分析師認為，拉加德上任後，不會偏離她自己常說的支援希臘、維護歐元區完整的一貫立場。

　其次，由於拉加德入主IMF，被外界認為，IMF未來的重心仍將偏重歐洲，因此，她未來勢必被要求給予發展中國家更多的權力，並協助IMF走出前總裁卡恩因性侵案突然辭職的陰影。

　傳朱民可望任副總裁

　為博取中國支持，拉加德先前在訪中行程中承諾，中國未來在IMF的代表權將獲提升，包括巴西在內的其他新興經濟體也將在IMF中扮演更重要的角色。

　值得注意的是，由於中國對拉加德表態支持，加上IMF第一副總裁利普斯基（John Lipsky）將於8月31日退休，前中國人民銀行（大陸央行）副行長、現任IMF總裁特別顧問的朱民已被外界認為是可能接任IMF第一副總裁的熱門人選。

　事實上，拉加德在當選前也曾強烈暗示入主IMF後，將支持朱民在IMF高層中扮演更重要的角色；復旦大學經濟學院副院長孫立堅對此認為，以中國當前在全球的經濟實力，未來朱民出線的機率應該很大。

洪博培競逐共和黨總統初選

星島日報 – 2011年6月22日星期三上午8:26

(http://hk.news.yahoo.com/%E6%B4%AA%E5%8D%9A%E5%9F%B9%E7%AB%B6%E9%80%90%E5%85%B1%E5%92%8C%E9%BB%A8%E7%B8%BD%E7%B5%B1%E5%88%9D%E9%81%B8-002600556.html)

美國前駐華大使、共和黨的洪博培（Jon Huntsman）正式宣布角逐2012年美國總統職位。

洪博培選擇在可以看到自由神像的新澤西州立公園公布角逐共和黨總統候選人提名的決定，已故總統列根當年都是在這裏宣布角逐總統。

洪博培在演講中強調，改變美國經濟現狀、削減公共債務和財政赤字的重要性，主張重新審視美國在海外的軍事承諾，將國家安全戰略的重點放在美國本土。他同時強調妥善處理阿富汗和伊拉克衝突的後期事宜，避免不必要地延長美國的參與時間。

洪博培於1960年3月出生在美國加利福尼亞州，早年就讀於猶他大學，後轉學到賓夕法尼亞大學攻讀工商管理專業並獲得學士學位。他曾先後擔任美國駐新加坡大 使和美國貿易副代表，2004年作為共和黨候選人當選猶他州州長，2008年贏得連任。2009年8月出任美國駐華大使，2011年4月結束任期回國。

除洪博培外，目前正式宣布參加總統競選的共和黨人，包括前馬薩諸塞州州長羅姆尼、前明尼蘇達州州長波倫蒂、前眾議院議長金里奇、明尼蘇達州聯邦眾議員巴克曼、德克薩斯州聯邦眾議員保羅、前賓夕法尼亞州聯邦參議員桑托勒姆和商人凱恩。
=================================================================

看到這新聞, 不知怎的, 猜想洪博培可能是將金本位重設美國的重要人物.

41% Of Belgian Central Bank Gold Has Been Lent Out

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/20/2011 16:10 -0400

(http://www.zerohedge.com/article/41-belgian-central-bank-gold-has-been-lent-out)

Some very disturbing revelations from CLSA's Chris Wood who in his latest Greed and Fear note discusses an event that may be all to prevalent within the central banking community: the less than overt lending out of central bank gold to "other entities" in return for picking up nickels in front of a steamroller. In this case, the central bank of governmentless Belgium, which had 41% of its gold out at the end of 2010 on loan. Naturally, the lent out gold is being used by some other key entity, potentially to mask its own inventory deficit, in exchange for the paltry sum of 0.3% on the total loan. Wood's conclusion: "This is a reminder that the paper gold market is significantly larger than the physical market. Just like a run on a bank in a fractional banking system, GREED & fear suspects it will be very hard to settle all the paper claims to gold physically in a real scramble for the metal. This is why in a parabolic spike physical gold is likely to trade at a significant premium to paper claims." We couldn't have said it better ourselves.

From CLSA's Greed and Fear:

Belgian central bank Vice Governor Francoise Masai reportedly told shareholders that about 41% of the central bank’s 216 metric tons of gold was on loan at the end of last year, and that the central bank earned a 0.3% return on its loans of physical gold to commercial banks last year. There are two points to note about this. The first is the puny annualised return earned on the gold leasing market. The second is the significant percentage of the central bank’s gold lent out. This is a reminder that the paper gold market is significantly larger than the physical market. Just like a run on a bank in a fractional banking system, GREED & fear suspects it will be very hard to settle all the paper claims to gold physically in a real scramble for the metal. This is why in a parabolic spike physical gold is likely to trade at a significant premium to paper claims. On this point GREED & fear should make it clear that the 25% of the global portfolio for a US dollar-denominated pension fund allocated to gold bullion is in physical gold.

Meanwhile, it is an interesting note that more than a dozen state legislators in America have now seen bills introduced that would make gold and silver coins legal tender in the respective states. Thus, gold and silver coins minted by the US government are now considered legal tender in Utah. Much of this activism is coming from Tea Party supporters. Financial sophisticates will scoff. But to GREED & fear it is a healthy sign that some people in America are thinking. For more on this popular movement to return to the monetary role of gold read an article published last week by the Los Angeles Times (“Pushing for a return to the gold standard”, 3 June 2011 by Nathaniel Popper).

萬寧回收兩種含塑產品

萬寧回收兩種含塑產品

2011-06-21

「Mannings消炎喉片」及「Mannings 葉酸5毫克」。

(綜合報道)(星島日報報道)塑化劑風波繼續蔓延，大型連鎖個人護理產品零售商「萬寧」在自願性產品測試中，發現兩款新加坡製的本港註冊藥劑產品「萬寧消炎喉片30片」及「萬寧葉酸5毫克60片」，含有塑化劑需要回收，不論產品拆封與否，巿民可攜產品包裝或發票，到萬寧門巿辦理退款或換貨手續。衞生署呼籲巿民停用該產品，並檢取樣本作進一步化驗。

衞 生署昨日接獲萬寧母公司牛奶有限公司通知，指用作紓緩喉嚨痛的「Mannings消炎喉片」檢出含有百萬分之一點四的DEHP及百萬分之三點八的 DINP；食物補充劑「Mannings 葉酸5毫克」則含有百萬分之一點三的DEHP及百萬分之一點六DINP。巿民可於辦公時間致電二二九九 三三八一向萬寧查詢。

醫院藥劑師學會副會長崔俊明說，消炎喉片多數供成人服用，但有關葉酸產品多為孕婦食用，相信短期攝取塑化劑對成年人不會造成即時影響，但擔心或會影響男性胎兒的生殖器官發展。

衞生署發言人建議，市民立即停用有關產品，署方已檢取產品樣本化驗，並將事件通知新加坡藥物監管當局跟進。

署方至今無接獲相關不良反應報告，但完成調查後，將把個案提交律政司尋求法律意見。

[http://news.sina.com.hk/news/5/1/1/2361590/1.html]

摘自<川普.清崎讓你賺大錢>

摘自<川普.清崎讓你賺大錢>

清崎和川普的建議是：

一、別買基金，別買股票。坑殺散戶是股市鐵律、定期定額是基金套房。
二、買房地產。如果你跟川普、清崎一樣不懂科技、不懂網路的話。收租為先、少想增值。
三、不只當員工，也要變股東。員工當然有機會發財，前提是這家企業入股門檻低，否則你領高薪致富機率極低。
四、加入直銷。如果想學生意，卻沒有富爸爸教，就請加入一家直銷商，幾年就好，因為他們比任何人都希望你搞懂生意是什麼。
五、善用槓桿。如果你的小生意還算成功，接下來就要會複製自己的長處，能力的槓桿能讓你舉重若輕、倍數擴張。發明麥當勞的人賺小錢，複製麥當勞的人發大財。

發不了財的原因 :

一、懶惰
二、習慣差
三、缺乏教育
四、缺乏經驗
五、缺乏指導
六、態度差
七、朋友和家人的不良影響
八、不專心
九、決心不夠
十、缺乏勇氣

當然最大的原因是: 找不到一個支持我們變富有的環境....

中國經濟奇跡的三大矛盾

《華爾街日報》-- 2011/6/ 20 星期一 (http://hk.biz.yahoo.com/110620/364/47d7m.html)

中國無疑是個經濟奇跡。改革開放以來，每10年中國人的生活水平就翻一番，而美國即使在經濟增速最快時期，要取得這樣的成績也要花上30年左右。不過，中國的經濟基礎開始出現裂縫。

把這些裂縫稱作三大矛盾吧。

矛盾一：中國領導人一方面決定放緩經濟增長步伐，抑制通貨膨脹；另一方面繼續給工人加工資，給民眾提供各類商品。同時實現這些目標對任何政府來說都是個挑戰，對於害怕失去控制權、不願讓市場力量主導國民經濟的中國政府來說，尤其困難。

在仍供奉著馬克思和恩格斯雕像的中國，工資佔國民總收入的比重持續縮水，貧富差距不斷擴大，這很難成為推動更多消費支出的秘訣。中國有眾多零售商店，但很多都像是博物館：人們前來「觀摩」，卻並不買東西。

由於勞動力需求強勁，中國工人的工資增長較快，這是維持中國領導人高度重視的穩定社會的關鍵，也是推動消費支出，讓中國擺脫出口依賴的關鍵。

到目前為止，一切順利。但不斷上漲的工資似乎正在稀釋中國工廠的競爭力。一個不言而喻的跡象是，美國服裝品牌Gap在中國商店裡出售的T恤 衫上標著「馬來西亞製造」的字樣，最便宜的牙刷也在越南製造。要解決這一問題，中國應實現轉型，成為更先進的製造商和服務提供商，而這就需要中國有更大、 更好、更自由的教育制度。一位官員說，中國現行教育制度在科學研究方面受到蘇聯管理模式的影響，中國精英人士都把子女送到國外讀書。

矛盾二：中國政壇最近的潮流話題是「人民幣國際化」，而實際上，人民幣目前基本上完全是一種國內貨幣。之所以要人民幣國際化，其中既有民族自豪的原因，也有貿易大國買賣本國貨幣的渴望。還有就是，如果再爆發金融危機，中國人決心要像美國一樣能獲得自由、低息的外國貸款。

到目前為止，一切順利。但人民幣不可能一夜之間實現國際化，除非中國取消低利率管制。現在中國的存款利率甚至趕不上CPI漲幅。參與全球貨幣遊戲意味著國民經濟要受到全球市場的影響。

有些官員看到了利率過低的危險。中國建設銀行行長郭樹清在接受採訪時說，你需要在失控之前，針對實際利率為負值做點什麼；很多人覺得把錢存起來沒多大好處，因此紛紛購買黃金和白銀等東西；很多人買房不是因為他們需要一個住處，而是為了投資。

的確，富人通過購置第三套和第四套房進行投機，而其他人因為房價太高連一套都買不起。驅動中國資產泡沫的是中國的貨幣政策，而非美聯儲（Federal Reserve）的貨幣政策。

美國利率低是因為美聯儲在刺激人們借貸。中國央行想減少貸款，但擁有強大政治力量的企業和政府借款人卻阻止利率升高。全球經濟分析師魯比尼（Nouriel Roubini），將中國的政策描述為：「收入從政治上弱勢的家庭向政治上強勢的企業大規模轉移：弱勢貨幣導致進口產品昂貴，低存款利率，以及對企業及開發商的低貸款利率，都相當於對儲蓄存款徵稅」。

讓人民幣國際化，意味著結束是出於政治原因；而將利率保持在經濟上最合理的水平之下的做法，意味著要讓經濟政策透明化。

矛盾三：在經濟每年增長10%的時候，一個壓制性政府讓人民高興比較容易。目前為止一切順利。

但從來不受人歡迎的給經濟踩剎車之舉，對一個不信任人民的政府來說，是個威脅。Twitter在中國被屏蔽。學生們抱怨說他們被限制在「中國的互聯網」之內。政府的過濾似乎減緩了網速。

民眾以其人之道還治其人之身。就連外國遊客都能感覺到很多人不信任政府。清華大學一個研究生在吃飯聊天時生氣地問：「一個國家的領導人，把自己的女兒送到國外接受教育，這個國家還有什麼可說的？」

在北京以北約96公里 處的一個村莊，蜿蜒的長城基本上對遊客沒什麼吸引力，映入眼簾的是十幾幢簡易的農舍，還有一幢嶄新的、更寬、更高的三層磚房。它看起來與周圍環境格格不入。大家都知道是誰建的：當地的村支書，而且花的不是他的工資。

地基的裂縫不一定預示著崩塌，但它們是壓力的痕跡。如果得不到處理，它們可以動搖一座經濟大廈，即使中國這樣宏偉的經濟大廈也不例外。

What if Greeks Decide They Don't Want to be Rescued?

By ALEN MATTICH

• JUNE 17, 2011, 12:36 A.M. ET

The European Union, European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund are negotiating hard among themselves about how to structure debt relief for the Greek economy. The latest reports suggest they might have come up with a temporary deal among themselves. But what the EU, ECB and IMF want won't matter unless they get the Greek government to play as well. And that's by no means assured.

For one thing, Greeks are growing fed up with austerity and seem very unwilling to take on the still stricter conditions being demanded of them to win fresh funding and avoid default. The Greek economy has taken a beating during the past couple of years. Non-stop, large-scale political protests, routine general strikes and parliamentary rebellion have brought Athenian streets to a standstill. And Prime Minister George Papandreou's government is teetering.

Greeks are starting to question whether there might not be an easier way out of their crisis. And inevitably, Argentina's experience a decade ago has been attracting plenty of interest.

In the three years leading up to its crisis the Argentine economy struggled, contracting a total of 8.4% by the end of 2001. Strains became so great that the country defaulted on its sovereign debt, causing its economy to slump another 11% in 2002. But the unshackling of its currency from the dollar and subsequent devaluation also reignited growth. Since its 2002 low, Argentine gross domestic product will have expanded by an average annual 7.4% by the end of this year, according to IMF data. Crucially, Argentine output was back above its previous peak within three years of default.

Compare this with Greece's prospects. The IMF forecasts the Greek economy will have contracted 9.3% from its 2008 peak by the end of this year. Although the IMF expects Greece to start growing again next year, that is difficult to believe. The one constant of this crisis has been that all forecasts for Greece have been overly optimistic. Worse still, once Greece starts to grow, it is expected only to do so at an anemic rate of around 2% per year. By the end of 2016, the Greek economy will only just be back to end-2008 levels.

Greeks might well decide an Argentine solution is the only real option. In other words, an exit from the euro, default and devaluation. And maybe that's what the market is already anticipating.

Barry Eichengreen, an economist at the University of California, Berkeley, famously argued that a euro-zone country couldn't leave the single currency because to do so would trigger "the mother of all financial crises." Long before the long political process necessary for any euro-zone country to leave the single currency was concluded, investors would have voted with their wallets. They'd dump the country's sovereign debt and flee its banks.

But this is pretty much what has already happened to Greece. Two-year Greek debt yields 28% while 10-year bonds are trading at less than half of face value. And for months now, depositors have been pulling funds out of Greek banks. Only the lifeline of yet more EU and IMF loans is keeping Greece in the euro. Loans that will have to be paid back.

If Greeks come to think they're already near or have reached the worst-case outcome of a euro exit but are getting none of the upside, they may well start to agitate to leave the single currency.

That would put the EU and the ECB into a very difficult position. A Greek default and departure from the euro would risk a systemic crisis across Europe's financial sector because of the huge exposure of Europe's banks to Greek government debt. The EU doesn't want to give in to Greece because of the costs involved and for fear of feeding moral hazard. But as the financial crisis showed, punctiliousness goes by the wayside when the crunch becomes severe enough.

The Bank of England worried publicly about the consequences of bailing out Northern Rock but then, after the Lehman Brothers collapse, had no compunction about pumping enormous amounts of money into the rest of the U.K.'s banking sector.

German, Dutch and Finnish politicians may be worried about how handing bottomless buckets of money to Greece will play out with their voters, but the alternative looks even uglier.

Ironically, were the Greeks to decide that a euro exit was not only possible, but desirable, the core EU, led by Germany, would almost certainly make huge concessions, including wholesale debt forgiveness.

Of course before they did so, core euro-zone countries would have to weigh up the costs of letting Greece off the hook relative to another rescue of their banking sectors. And not just Greece. Ireland and Portugal and possibly Spain and Italy would demand some sort of easing of their national liabilities if they saw Greece getting too good a deal. This would potentially be catastrophic for the politicians making the concessions. But the more Greeks become convinced they can go it alone the better the deal the EU would have to serve up to prevent them from doing so.

Could core Europe do this without going the way of Ireland, becoming a backstop that itself goes bust under the crushing weight of others' debts? It'll be interesting to see who draws the line where in this Greek standoff.

(http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304186404576389632761803982.html)

IMF hit by 'very major' cyber security attack

BBC News - 12 June 2011 Last updated at 18:52 GMT
(http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-13740591)

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) says it has been targeted by a sophisticated cyber attack.

Officials at the fund gave few details but said the attack earlier this year had been "a very major breach" of its systems, the New York Times reports.

Cyber security officials said the hack was designed to install software to create a "digital insider presence".

The IMF, which holds sensitive economic data about many countries, said its operations were fully functional.

The cyber attack took place over several months, and happened before former IMF chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn was arrested over sexual assault charges.

"I can confirm that we are investigating an incident," said spokesman David Hawley.

"I am not in a position to elaborate further on the extent of the cyber security incident."

The New York Times said IMF staff had been told of the intrusion on Wednesday by e-mail, but that the Fund had not made a public announcement.

The e-mail warned that "suspicious file transfers" had been detected and that an investigation had shown a desktop at the Fund had been "compromised and used to access some Fund systems".

There was "no reason to believe that any personal information was sought for fraud purposes," it said.

High profile breaches

A cyber security expert told Reuters the infiltration had been a targeted attack which installed software designed to give a nation state a "digital insider presence" at the IMF.

"The code was developed and released for this purpose," said Tom Kellerman, who has worked for the Fund.

Bloomberg quoted an unnamed security expert as saying the hackers were connected to a foreign government. However, such attacks are very difficult to trace.

The World Bank said it briefly cut its network connection with the Fund out "an abundance of caution".

"The World Bank Group, like any other large organisation, is increasingly aware of potential threats to the security of our information system and we are constantly working to improve our defences," said spokesman Rich Mills.

The incident is the latest in a string of high-profile cyber security breaches.

In April, the Sony Playstation network was shut down after hackers stole the personal data of about 100 million accounts and in May, US defence firm Lockheed Martin said it had come under a significant cyber-attack.

CIA Director Leon Panetta told the US Congress earlier this week that a large-scale cyber attack which would cripple power, finance, security and governmental systems was "a real possibility in today's world".

Rogers: Only a Crisis Can Fix U.S. Debt Problem

http://www.marketwatch.com/video/asset/rogers-only-a-crisis-can-fix-us-debt-problem-2011-06-08/7B14FAAB-F745-4ECA-ADB4-F8D5BD0A2C96?link=kiosk#!4037F460-50B5-4C32-8AAB-EAAB717DA6D9

JUNE 10, 2011
In an interview with WSJ's Simon Constable, famed investor Jim Rogers weighs in on what it will take to solve the U.S. debt crisis, why he's shorting U.S. tech companies, why the stimulus package was a bad idea, and the looming energy crisis.

母親佳節願望 子女吃得安全

問題食品全國氾濫，昨日母親節，中國母親們有個簡單而奢侈的節日願望：讓子 女可吃上無毒食品！在重慶，一名八十後母親為減少兒子吃到毒食品風險，甘願做農夫，她租下農田，親手種植有機蔬菜，雖然辛苦，但勝在新鮮無毒。類似情況， 在內地已非個案，輿論直指民眾對政府已信心盡失，改革開放卅年，反而退回農耕時代，怒問「當官的有母親沒有？」

家住重慶涪陵區的母親唐建華，育有一名七歲大的兒子，備受毒食品問題困擾，為了讓兒子嘗到安全新鮮的蔬菜，健康成長，今年三月在區內農村以四千元租下一塊六十平方米的農田種菜。她無奈地說：「這幾年，食品安全問題連續不斷，染色饅頭，地溝油……一次次挑戰着我們的心理底線。」

租田種有機菜 較買有保障

唐建華租下田地種菜後，每逢周末均會趕到菜園，由播種、澆水、拔草，她都親力親為，在烈日當空下耕種，每每汗流浹背，不過家人的健康成為她繼續下去的動力。她近期在農民的指導之下，按照季節種植不同種類的蔬菜，包括了油麥菜、茄子、黃瓜、萵筍等，收穫不俗。

「萵筍摘下來洗洗就能吃，有股清香味、吃起來還略帶甜味。」唐建華表示，農田蔬菜每兩周採摘一次，每次的分量足夠他們一家人享用三日。「有些菜還帶有泥土和水，看起來沒有超市裏的蔬菜乾淨，但很新鮮，味道也特別好，最重要確保食品安全，總較外出購買有保障。」

網民表同感 齊轟政府瀆職

其實，內地近來愈來愈多民眾抱着唐女士的想法，上個月她菜田隔壁就增加了五十多戶「菜農」。除此，內地部分民眾也興起在住家露 台、天台，甚至馬路邊種菜，而各大政府機關、國企更誇張，耗費巨資包農場種菜、養殖，專供自己的飯堂。大批網民對於民眾無奈自種的情況大表同感，直言若非 政府瀆職，監管不嚴，何來大批「城市農夫」？

另一方面，全國各地昨均有各種各類的母親節活動，有小學生模擬大肚子體會懷孕之苦，有監獄組織囚犯向母親獻花活動，願天下母親暫忘充滿艱辛的現實。

雖然母愛無限偉大，但是湖北武漢大學前日對校內學生進行調查，顯示九成男生從未親口對母親說「我愛你」，大都認為「心照」就可以。

本報綜合報道

http://orientaldaily.on.cc/cnt/china_world/20110509/00178_001.html

The Biggest Bank in France Has Suddenly Cut ATM Card Access to Cash in Half and People are Freaking Out!

Posted on June 7, 2011 by maxkeiser|

• LA BANQUE POSTALE ATTAQUE SES USAGERS: BAISSE DE TOUS LES RETRAITS !!!

I just got off the phone with Pierre Jananovic . . . La Banque Postale has lowered the limits on the amounts of cash customers can withdraw per week by 50%. First of all, for you Americans and Brits, the way France works its banking system – customers are limited to how much they can withdraw per week from their accts no matter what the balance. Now what has happened here is that Gold card members – who could take out 3,000 euros a week – are now limited to 1,500 a week. This was sudden, without warning, and people here in France are freaking out. Pierre tells me that its the first clear sign that liquidity in the European banking system is drying up.

(http://maxkeiser.com/2011/06/07/the-biggest-bank-in-france-has-atm-card-access-to-cash-in-half/)

知足

敬虔加上知足的心便是大利了； 因為我們沒有帶甚麼到世上來，也不能帶甚麼去。只要有衣有食，就當知足。 －－提摩太前書6:6-8

A few interesting things

Today I came across this clip, very interesting:

http://www.greggmckenzie.com/pages/IconNew/HSBC.html


A few items that I should look at when I have more spare time:

1. Climategate (sadly I overlooked this news and related stories when it happened)

2. The Secrets of The Federal Reserve written by Eustace Clarence Mullins, Jr. (March 9, 1923 – February 2, 2010)

Fed Lawyer Alvarez: “The Federal Reserve Does NOT Own Any Gold at All”

http://goldnews.com/2011/06/02/fed-lawyer-alvarez-the-federal-reserve-does-not-own-any-gold-at-all/

Author: goldnews | Filed under: Central Bank News, Precious Metals News

Thats right. The Fed owns NO gold. Zero, zip, ziltch.

For those of you who did not watch yesterday’s monetary policy hearing in the house of representatives, you most likely missed this bombshell exchange between Federal Reserve lawyer Scott Alvarez and committee chairman Dr. Ron Paul. My jaw literally dropped when I heard the Fed’s general counsel declare that the Federal Reserve owns no gold. After 1934, Alvarez explains that the Fed handed its gold over to the Treasury in exchange for gold certificates. When pressed further, Alvarez noted that the gold certificates do not represent any interest whatsoever in the gold itself. He explained the gold certificate listings on the Fed balance sheet, not as a claim to gold, but at most a claim to dollars from the Treasury. See the quotes here (and watch the videos at the bottom of the post):

Scott Alvarez: “The Federal Reserve does not own any gold at all… we have not owned gold since 1934, um, so we have not engaged in any gold swap. Before 1934 the Federal Reserve did, we did own gold. We turned that over by law to the Treasury and received in return for that gold certificates.”

Ron Paul: “…You have the securities for essentially all the gold?”

Scott Alvarez: “No. No we have no interest in the gold that is owned by the Treasury. We have simply an accounting document that is called gold certificates that represents the value at a statutory rate that we gave to the Treasury in 1934″

This issue is even more complicated than may appear and after doing some research we seem to have settled some of the quirks in this odd Treasury-Fed scheme. Bare with us when reading through this.

What appears to have happened under the Gold Reserve Act of 1934 is the Treasury seized the Fed’s gold, taking full ownership and claim to its proceeds. The Treasury as an aside transferred a sum of special 1934 series gold certificates to the Fed amounting to the statutory value of gold ($20.67 per ounce) times the quantity of gold transfered from the Fed to the Treasury. The official gold price was later revalued to $35 an ounce, an effective devaluation of the currency, but the quantity of gold certificates issued to the Fed was not amended to reflect revaluation until the passing of the Par Value Modification Act of 1972. Under this act, gold was revalued again, this time to $38 an oz, and the Fed’s gold certificate account was credited upwards by $822 million worth of certificates to reflect the change in the gold price from $35 to $38. The gold was revalued one last time in 1973 to $42.22 and again the Federal Reserve was credited with more gold certificates, $1.157 billion to be exact, to account for this. After everything, the Federal Reserve was left with $11.16 billion dollars worth of gold certificates.

So what exactly are the gold certificates the Fed holds? For one, the Fed’s gold certificates are unlike previous gold certificate issues, and are not publicly trade-able. They are also not direct claims to gold, but rather reflect claims only to US issued currency or coin held by the Treasury. The Fed can take claim to this currency on demand, and their certificates are an accounted for liability of the Treasury as listed in Note 19. Treasury’s “Other Liabilities”. In addition, if the Treasury is unable to satisfy a demand by the Fed for the funds, the Fed is able to gain access to the gold, since the gold stands as collateral for the gold certificates issued by the Treasury. This fact is taken from this statement in Note 2, from the Treasury’s balance sheet:

“Gold totaling $11.1 billion as of September 30, 2010, and 2009, was pledged as collateral for gold certificates issued and authorized to the FRBs by the Secretary of the Treasury.“

Given that the Fed has an indirect claim to the Treasury’s gold, it is questionable what line of reasoning the Fed’s general counsel was using when stating so broadly that the Fed has “no interest in the gold that is owned by the treasury”.

In any case, we can analyze the implications of the basic facts and come to a couple of conclusions:

1) The widespread notion that the Fed owns gold is false. The corollary to this is the mistaken belief that the Fed understates its gold holdings on its balance sheet by only reporting certificates based on the $42.22 statutory gold value. The Fed does not in fact own the US gold stock multiplied by the market price of gold, unless the Treasury defaults and even then its not clear. The Fed does, however, own a claim to currency totaling $11.1 billion and this value has a remote chance of going up significantly if the Treasury revalues its gold and maintains the practice initiated in the Par Value Modification Act.

2) The fact that the Fed owns no gold, nor claims to any gold, means the fundamental value of the dollar lacks any backing besides dollars themselves, not including Fed building and equipment. Dollars are in essence worth a lot less than many people thought, and the Fed is much more impotent in using the prowess of their assets, and conducting monetary policy in general, than many believed. In all, Alvarez’s clarification strengthens the case for gold’s high dollar value immensely.