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小林的百科筆記

Showing posts with label silver. Show all posts
Showing posts with label silver. Show all posts

Turk: “This year it is not Mexico in the headlines, but rather Greece that is ready to default. Of course the other big news item coming up this summer is the Federal Reserve’s announced intention to end QE2. It’s amazing that so many market participants are taking the Federal Reserve at their word.


All one has to do is look at how much money the US government is borrowing and what they intend to borrow in the future to meet their spending needs to clearly understand that the Federal Reserve is going to keep buying the US government’s paper. This is the point that John Williams made clear in his KWN interview.


I think we have to be prepared for tremendous volatility and the possibility that this summer could be a repeat of 1982 where gold took off to the upside in a major way. Gold became the go to asset in the summer of ’82 that everyone wanted to own.


The extraordinary rally in the summer of 1982 began in the second week of June and by the first week of September gold has risen 50%. That’s a 50% move in less than three months!”


When asked about silver specifically Turk replied, “The gold/silver ratio has climbed back into the 40’s, and from a technical point of view is very close to achieving my mid-40’s target. That suggests to me that silver’s low is in place. My only concern here Eric is that this is options expiry week. We know from past experience that the shorts try to keep precious metals prices from rising to have as many possible calls expire out of the money.


Full article at:

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/5/23_James_Turk_-_Gold_to_Have_a_Staggering_Up-Move_This_Summer.html


Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011 May 19, 2011 - 02:17 AM

By: Jeff_Berwick


We, here at The Dollar Vigilante (TDV), have been big supporters of Hugo Salinas Price for years. Not just for his business exploits, which have made him a billionaire, but because he now spends a significant portion of his time trying to return silver as a monetary medium in his home country of Mexico.


He recently was quoted by King World News, stating that silver could be monetized as early as this year in Mexico and so we reached out to Hugo to get some clarification of what he believes may occur and what some of the repurcussions could be.


We'll let Hugo introduce himself, for those that don't know him, but to give you some background, Mr. Salinas Price founded Elektra, a multi-billion dollar electronics retailer which employs more than 37,000 people with more than 1,000 stores in Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras and Peru.


The Dollar Vigilante (TDV): Thank you very much for taking the time to speak with us today! Please introduce yourself and give some background on yourself to our audience.


Hugo Salinas Price (HSP): I am 79 years old, son of a Mexican father from the city of Monterrey, Mexico, and of an American mother from Bryn Athyn, Pa., where I was born. My education was largely in English-speaking schools. I married early, at 22, and my wife and I are looking forward to our 57th Anniversary later this year. I did not finish any college course for a BA (Editor's Note: Yet another "uneducated" billionaire as per our recent blog post: Debtucation);


I decided to devote myself to some productive work at age 20 and so I am mostly self-educated. As luck would have it, I managed to build a tiny company building radios into a chain of small stores selling durable consumer goods in installments to the public. After 38 years of one single job, I turned over management entirely to my eldest son, and he has been very successful, indeed. It's certainly not my fault I am considered a "billionaire" - this was my eldest son's doing, he is to blame for it entirely.


However, monetary affairs have always fascinated me, and in "retirement" I was able to devote myself to thinking through the problem of instability in modern society. Thus, I arrived at the question of silver money, in 1995, when I wrote a little book "Silver - The Road for Mexico" (available only in Spanish). Thus began the long journey which has given meaning and purpose to my old age.


TDV: Where in Mexico do you live?


HSP: I live in Mexico City, same house since 1959.


TDV: You have been very active in lobbying the Mexican Government to integrate silver into the money system. Could you please expand on this?


HSP: First, I want to make it clear that my campaign for silver does NOT mean backing the Mexican peso with silver. I am not proposing anything so radical as a general reform of the Mexican monetary system - simply because such a program would cause so much disruption and grief while people adapted to it, that it is politically impossible; and so it is useless to spend time working on something so "far out".


What I propose is simply to give a quoted monetary value to a one-ounce pure silver coin which already exists, the "Libertad" ounce (editors note: Libertad means freedom in Spanish). This coin has no engraved value upon it, and it would be given a QUOTED monetary value by the Central Bank; the quoted monetary value would always be slightly higher than the market price of a silver ounce, and when the price of silver rises, the Central Bank is to adapt to that situation by giving the coin a higher price. When the price of silver falls, the last quote remains in place, so that the quoted value can never diminish, only rise to accommodate the higher market price of silver.


By this means, something very important would happen: the silver coin would remain permanently in circulation with paper money; the silver coin would never be melted down, because higher prices of silver would simply mean a higher monetary value for the coin. Of course, people would save these coins, the demand for them would be enormous. But they could also use these coins for payments in emergencies or for investments. An excellent and simple way to save!


There is in the world today, no real alternative to fiat money - fake money. All currencies of the world are equally void of any intrinsic worth. Monetizing the "Libertad" ounce would give Mexicans an alternative and simple way of saving, in money that is truly money, because it is made of silver. Savings in "Libertad" ounces would provide every family with a nest-egg of great importance, as it would consist of coins which cannot be devalued by the State, with a totally liquid value.


TDV: OK, this clarifies things a lot. So, your goal here is not to fully back the Peso with silver.


HSP: Yes, as I said before, I am NOT for "backing the Peso with silver". I am striving to have a single silver coin, the one-ounce pure silver "Libertad", MONETIZED by means of a monetary quote to be issued by the Central Bank.


The Government of Mexico, just like the Governments of every single country in the world today, allows the Central Bank to inflate the money supply through the banking system. Not one of the world's governments is ever going to willingly stop inflating!


The monetized one-ounce pure silver "Libertad" will provide an excellent refuge for savers who want to preserve the value of their savings for their old age, for the education of their children, or simply to eat when hard times strike. It would be the first and (for a time) the only true alternative money in the world of the 21st Century.


TDV: In other words, the Mexican central bank can keep inflating under this proposal.


HSP: Neither the Mexican government nor ANY GOVERNMENT IN THE WORLD will ever swear off of inflating the money supply and expanding credit when it can be done. That's why we need the alternative money, which can be said to be "indexed" to the market price of silver.


TDV: Why would the Mexican government give the "Libertad" a quoted monetary value? Does this mean that someone can pay a certain amount of pesos for the coin and then, if the peso value of silver halves, they can sell it back to the Central Back for the same price that they purchased it for? Wouldn't the Central Bank have an incentive to print enough money so that the peso value of silver never falls?


HSP: The institution giving the coin a quoted monetary value would not be the Mexican government, it would be the Central Bank, in obedience to Legislation passed by the Mexican Congress, which has the constitutional authority to instruct the Central Bank on this matter.


About "selling the coin back to the Central Bank" for the same price they paid for it, when silver has fallen in bullion value: Yes, they could, but no one in his right mind would do this. The Mexican peso which circulated for 25 years (1920-1945), of which 458 million were minted, contained silver which fell in value sharply during the Depression, yet not one of those pesos was ever returned for PAPER. Gresham's Law, you know. No one ever exchanges better money for worse money.


Printing pesos to keep the peso price of silver up, means inflating and devaluing the peso against the dollar, in which currency silver is quoted in world markets. The Central Bank would have no reason to do this.


TDV: We have been debating your proposal amongst some members of the Austrian economics community. Some state that silver is too volatile to use as an alternative currency at this time... they prefer gold. What are your thoughts on using silver versus gold?


HSP: The monetization of the silver ounce would cause a demand for it that would tend to smooth out the volatility, which I suspect in any case is due to manipulation of the silver market. The best way to combat that manipulation is to create a great demand for physical silver which would put the shorts out of business.


Talk of a return to gold is important, as it fosters a re-orientation of thinking which is indispensable - from the paper of the last 40 years, to gold, that will give more long-lasting benefits to humanity. Eventually, we'll have to get past the "talking" stage and move on to action; however, no one has a clue, at this point, on how to get from paper to gold!


Monetizing the silver "Libertad" coin is a FIRST STEP IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION. It does not fix everything, it does not reform everything, it is painless and it is very, very attractive to people. This, my friends, is the only practical way to get anywhere in life!


To quote an old, old song, "I don't want to set the world on fire, No baby, I'm contented - with a flame in your heart".


TDV: Nice touch. Just for the record, we here at TDV are fully in favor of setting the monetary world on fire if need be to rid ourselves of these central banks and governments! But we also appreciate the prudence in taking it one step at a time as you are attempting to do with the silver Libertad.


On other matters, we recently wrote a blog piece about the vibrancy of the Mexican economy (The Rumors of Mexico's Death Have Been Greatly Exaggerated). What are your overall thoughts about the state of Mexico and it's economy?


HSP: We're looking great, considering the fiscal chaos in the USA with its $1 Trillion-plus budget deficits as far as the eye can see. We need to have our people save lots of silver, to face the coming readjustments in the US economy, which will be very painful, indeed.


TDV: Thank you very much sir for your time and your efforts to try to bring some sort of sanity to the monetary system.


In closing, this is a small but potentially inspiring move to bring something solid into the monetary system. It could set off a rush, even by the neighboring Americans, to get their hands on the silver Peso, which could even lead to the US Government having to do something it is supposed to do in the Constitution but hasn't done for decades: coin money in gold and silver through a "silver dollar".


We wish Mr. Salinas Price the best of luck and thank him for his work in this field.


(http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article28214.html)

Thu, May 12 2011, 13:48 GMT by Mark O'Byrne - GoldCore

Gold and silver’s recovery in recent days proved to be temporary and further falls were seen yesterday (sharply in silver) prior to a tentative recovery overnight and then more falls again this morning. The euro has stabilized after recent sharp falls and euro gold at €1,050/oz remains comfortably above €1,000/oz after a period of correction and consolidation. Euro gold looks like it is set to break above record highs of €1,072/oz (12/28/10) and target €1,100/oz as the European debt crisis deepens.

GoldCore
Cross Currency Rates at 1030 (London AM Fix)

The massive disconnect between the COMEX spot and futures prices and the physical market continues with leveraged, powerful players on Wall Street (primarily hedge funds and Wall Street banks) able to effect short term sell offs in the paper market despite the very strong supply, demand fundamentals in the physical bullion market.

GoldCore
Euro Gold – 1 Year (Daily)

Simplistic assertions that gold and silver are asset bubbles and that silver’s bubble has burst continue.

Those who have been wrongly calling gold and silver bubbles in recent years fail to realize that gold and silver are no ordinary assets, indeed many contend that they are not assets at all, rather they are money. The precious metals were demonetized in the second half of the 20th century as unbacked paper currencies (fiat money) became accepted globally.

GoldCore
USD Gold – 1 Year (Daily)

Those continuing to call gold a bubble do not understand monetary economics and the growing trend towards the gradual remonetisation of gold. This is due to the unstable nature of the global financial system and markets and growing concerns about all fiat currencies including the international reserve currency, the U.S. dollar and major reserve currencies such as the British pound, the Japanese yen and the euro.

Ultra loose monetary policies and global currency debasement renders confident assertions of gold and silver being bubbles simplistic and naïve.

Indeed, with growing calls for a return to the Gold Standard, the latest from billionaire media magnate Steve Forbes (see news), gold looks set to at least rise to its 1980 adjusted high of $2,400/oz.

Forbes said in an interview that “people know that something is wrong with the dollar."

“What seems astonishing today could become conventional wisdom in a short period of time,” Forbes said. He concluded that "you cannot trash your money without repercussions.”

He thus echoes long term gold standard advocate Representative Ron Paul and the recent advocation of a return to some form of Gold Standard by World Bank President Robert Zoellick.

A return to a Gold Standard would likely see gold revalued to thousands of dollars per ounce.


(http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/gold-investments-market-update/2011/05/12/)

Silver Price Sees Biggest Drop in Three Decades

By Greg McCoach
Friday, May 13th, 2011

The price of silver has really taken a haircut over the past several days.

Silver prices have fallen some 27% since the beginning of the month, and is now leading commodities to the downside.

The sell-off has been dramatic, to say the least. Gold has been hit as well, but not anywhere near as badly as silver has...

Word on the street is that several large hedge funds have been liquidating commodity positions across the board over the past few weeks.

The Wall Street Journal reported last Tuesday:

George Soros's big hedge fund, a firm operated by high-profile investor John Burbank and some other leading firms have been selling gold and silver, according to people close to the matter, after furiously accumulating precious metals for much of the past two years.

I suspect Soros was holding more silver than gold, considering its price volatility...

Last week, silver prices suffered their worst one-day drop in dollar terms in three decades. And with such a stir in the market, the iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV) was one of the most actively traded investments on the U.S. market on several days last week.

This extreme volatility is setting us up for the ever-increasing moves to the upside in precious metals — and in commodities in general.

And this is really a short-term pullback and buying opportunity.

I expect precious metal prices to settle down in the next few days and begin to form a new base. From there, we'll launch to the next set of new highs in gold and silver.

Expect for this to occur. Plan your buys and sells accordingly as we head into the next rally.

may 2011 silver

The big boys like Soros will continue to sell into the short-term rallies with their paper profits, just as they have this past week or so. But the rallies will continue to higher and higher levels.

We should just start factoring this type of market behavior into our thinking from here on out. It's going to get extremely volatile, which will push our markets into parabolic levels. I suspect money flow to pour back in at some point.

But the question now becomes How long does the exodus last, and how long will the big boys who have left the trade sit on the sidelines?

Jim Sinclair said the other day, “The drop at this time will in retrospect be seen as the foundation for gold trading not at $1,650, but rather at $5,000 an ounce.”

Central banks around the world have become net buyers of gold after two decades of heavy selling pressure. There is not a week that goes by anymore without news of major physical buying of gold or silver by "this country" or "that group".

These are the signs that gold is once again considered the ultimate form of money.

The physical silver market is still extremely tight despite the heavy selling on the paper side, which has severely impacted our market in the short term. But I don’t think this will last long...

Gold and silver are not in a bubble; the U.S. dollar and United States bonds are in a bubble!

For now, precious metal prices have taken it on the chin. But the fight is far from over...

In the end, it will be gold and silver as the last men standing.

So watch carefully as things once again go our way. I don’t think we will have to wait too long.

Good Investing,

Greg McCoach
Analyst, Wealth Daily
Investment Director, Mining Speculator


(http://www.wealthdaily.com/articles/are-silver-prices-collapsing/3083)